Summary:
George Will calling talks of "crisis" exaggerated and typical for presidential elections (need dragons to slay). Early retirement should not be considered a given; Q1 2008 drop of 9.9% in S&P500 not alarming; drop in house prices allows first-time buyers onto ladder (13/04/2008)
Facts and Figures:
- S&P500 contractions:
- 2008 Q1 : 9.9%
- 1998 Q3: 10.3%
- 1990 Q3: 14.5%
- 1987 Q4: 23.2%
- 1932 Q2: 39.4%
Notes:
- percentage people working aged 55 to 64 rose 1.5% from April 2007
- Wall Street Journal: "prospect of millions of grandparents toiling away in their golden years doesn't square with the American dream."
- Will: "idea that protracted golden years of idleness are a universal right is a delusion of recent vintage."
- Congress, 1935, enacted Social Security; retirement age set at 65, then life expectancy of average male
- compare life expectancy today: 75 years
- standard definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction
- 9.9% first quarter decline of S&P 500 not remarkable
- Q3 1998: 10.3%, Q3 1990: 14.5%, Q4 1987: 23.2%; all without long-term trauma
