Summary:
Gideon Rachman editorial in the FT. American presidents and candidates have been pledging energy independence from Middle-Eastern oil since Nixon (first oil crisis). In reality dependence has increased. Competition for oil increasing. Biggest challenged posed by globalisation not outsourcing of jobs or influx of cheap goods, but globalisation of Western consumption patterns. If Chinese and Indians eventually drive and eat as Europeans and Americans, current oil and food crisis is just the beginning. New technology and change in lifestyle will be required. (published: 13/05/2008)
Notes:
- Iraq: largely war over oil, despite opposite claims
- has backfired; price of oil gone up, per barrel:
- 2003: $26; 2008: $126; 2008-end: $200 ?
- Calls for energy independence in US
- universal: McCain, Obama, Clinton, Bush, Nixon
- US foreign oil imports increasing, rather than decreasing
- 1973: 33%; 2008: 60%; 2020: 70%?
- money poored into production of biofuels
- has pushed up food prices
- no leading politician yet prepared to call for change in lifestyle to adapt to world of permanently higher energy prices
- Americans little power over OPEC
- plenty of customers for oil
- over 50% of oil exported to Asia
- Competition for oil supplies intensifying
- Chinese oil consumption doubled between 1994 and 2003
- will have doubled again by 2010.
- China's foray into Africa largely driven by its search for energy security
- IEA: China world's largest consumer of energy by 2010
- IEA: world will need 50% more energy than today by 2030
- At present about 10 cars in China for every 1,000 people;
- compare: 480 cars per 1,000 people in the US
- by 2015, China could be the world’s largest market for new cars
- Globalisation of Western consumption patterns is the challenge
- greater challenge than outsourcing of jobs or influx of cheap goods
- current inflation in oil and food prices just the start: Indians and Chinese will eventually drive and eat like Europeans and Americans
- Energy security now central to American and European foreign policy
- but also to that of main Asian powers
- no real foreign policy fix for problem
- Only solution is new technologies and change in lifestyle
