Summary:
Robert Bryce noting that a Manhatten Project appears to be underway, except that there are no government mandates: huge investments are made in renewable technologies by private investors. Two main difference between previous energy crisis (70s) and now: huge amount of venture capital available, and the amount of new technologies that are being brought to the market as a result. Far better that these risk be taken by the private sector. No government agency can react as quickly as the private sector can. Markets, not governments, are going to determine the pace of our transition to alternative and renewable fuels. (Published: 12/06/08)
Summary:
- Manhatten Project underway as a result of higher energy prices
- huge investments in renewable energy technologies
- but without government mandates
- New Energy Finance Ltd., London-based research firm:
- 2007: $148.4b invested globally in "clean energy technologies, companies and projects"
- four-fold increase over 2004 levels
- Mark Mills, Digital Power Capital (PE fund)
- two critical differences from the 1970s:
- huge amount of venture capital now available to energy entrepreneurs
- several thousand firms providing venture capital or private equity
- "the phenomenal new suite of technologies that are being brought to the market that can address the problem"
- from nanotechnology to high-bandwidth wireless communications
- energy technology companies booming with oil selling for more than $130
- First Solar Inc.
- makes thin-film solar panels
- best-performing stock in US in 2007
- up nearly 800% last year
- stock has increased some 12 fold in value since IPO in 2006
- trading at $300/share, P/E of about 124, market cap of $25b
- Broadwind Energy
- builds towers and other equipment for the wind energy
- June 2006: shares selling for about $1.30
- May 2008: $26/share
- whether current investment trend is a bubble remains to be seen
- but: far better that these risk be taken by the private sector
- no government agency can react as quickly as the private sector can
- Carlos Ghosn, Nissan CEO in New York Times: "the shifts coming from the markets are more powerful than what regulators are doing"
- central point: markets, not governments, are going to determine the pace of our transition to alternative and renewable fuels
- the length of that transition, which will likely last several decades, depends almost exclusively on how quickly those new sources can become cost-competitive with fossil fuels
