Summary:
China's middle class is growing in numbers, is becoming more educated and assertive. Is the position of the communist party in danger? Government is starting to be challenged by new social groups, which are growing rapidly and want to be heard. The urban middle class played a pivotal role in the transition to democracy in South Korea and Taiwan. Many in West believes capitalism will inevitably bring democracy in China. The process is likely to be very slow and gradual. China's middle class is still relatively small. Its small size begets political conservatism. It is a middle class with strong ties to state, reluctant to challenge the status quo. Recent protests are evidence that middle class citizens are concerned to defend the good name of the government. Moreover, protesting against the system still carries great risks. Overall, China's middle class is still not very mature. It is prepared to challenge the authorities only when its immediate interests are threatened. (Published: 21/07/08)
Notes:
- Chinee communist party
- shows no sign of retreating from its dominant position in politics
- but: faces challenges on a series of fronts from a society that is becoming more complex, educated and assertive
- biggest potential threat to the party comes from the educated urban middle class
- rural protests tend to be isolated and local police are often not afraid to crack heads, far away from probing eyes
- but: if company executives, lawyers and university professors challenging the political status quo: the party’s hold will become much less secure
- urban middle class played a pivotal role in the transition to democracy in South Korea and Taiwan and, more than a century earlier, in western Europe and the US
- China’s leaders are well aware
- vigorous debate in elite circles in Beijing about transparency in government, media freedom and legal due process
- just how quickly the party embraces such changes will depend to a large degree on how much pressure it faces from the new suburbs
- government is starting to be challenged by new social groups, which are growing rapidly and want to be heard
- even people who support a lot of things the government is doing can change their view if they do not feel they are being listened to
- response to Sichuan earthquake
- more than 200,000 people travelled to Sichuan to lend a hand with the relief effort
- has prompted a vigorous debate both at home and abroad about whether it has opened new room for civil society in China
- notion that the Chinese middle class is becoming more politically active is a deeply seductive one for western observers
- plays into one of the most powerful ideas of the age: that capitalism will inevitably bring democracy
- why harp on about human rights, some diplomats ask, if the country is moving in that direction anyway?
- also implies that, in an important way, China is becoming like the west
- but: plenty of reasons to be wary
- many argue that it will be only a slow and gradual process.
- middle class is still relatively small
- 800m Chinese live in rural areas, where most struggle to make ends meet through farming
- large percentage of people in cities now own their homes
- but: this is a deceptive indicator of wealth because many bought property at cut-rate prices during government privatisations
- car ownership, another indicator of middle-class status, is growing rapidly
- but: from a very low base: the proportion of Chinese who own a vehicle is still only around 3 per cent
- small size of the middle class also begets a political conservatism
- to live in the wealthy suburbs of a city such as Shanghai is to enjoy social privileges in terms of education and healthcare
- many middle-class Chinese lean towards the political status quo
- because they suspect that a democracy would have to spread those resources more thinly across the country
- China’s middle class has strong ties to the state
- much stronger than was the case in most of western Europe or in most Asian countries that have become democracies
- thus less likely to challenge the party-state
- particularly true of the new generation of private entrepreneurs
- many private companies began as offshoots of local government departments or state-owned enterprises
- even today, business people who wish to build national operations need to cultivate strong political connections around the country
- one-third of China's richest people are members of the Communist party
- party has gone to great lengths to win the loyalty of professionals
- e.g. university teachers have been given regular and in some cases large pay increases
- party membership is an attractive asset because of the connections it brings
- boost job prospects of ambitious students
- protesters defending the good name of the government
- e.g. Tibet unrest, Olympics torch relay in London and Paris
- many outraged at what they saw as attempts to humiliate China in its Olympics year
- internet users began to call for a boycott of French goods
- protesting against the government also brings huge risks
- arrest or other punishments if they caused too much trouble
- eluctance of people to become campaign leaders
- “The shot hits the bird that pokes its head out first.”
- some observers believe middle-class China is prepared to challenge the authorities only when its immediate interests are threatened
- recent events fall short of a challenge to the system
- overall, the Chinese middle class is not very mature
